Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.016439 0.018619 0.020983 0.023737 0.026860 0.030291 0.034349
2025-08-10 0.012858 0.015824 0.019318 0.023741 0.029197 0.035713 0.044102
2025-08-17 0.010671 0.013900 0.017925 0.023318 0.030367 0.039286 0.051458
2025-08-24 0.009405 0.012834 0.017311 0.023595 0.032210 0.043637 0.060004
2025-08-31 0.008289 0.011774 0.016509 0.023429 0.033316 0.046979 0.067386
2025-09-07 0.007617 0.011216 0.016285 0.023966 0.035354 0.051686 0.077019
2025-09-14 0.006695 0.010182 0.015257 0.023203 0.035386 0.053453 0.082455
2025-09-21 0.006042 0.009470 0.014611 0.022908 0.036033 0.056111 0.089387
2025-09-28 0.005389 0.008686 0.013769 0.022210 0.035955 0.057600 0.094556
2025-10-05 0.005170 0.008560 0.013928 0.023086 0.038422 0.063256 0.106891
2025-10-12 0.004907 0.008331 0.013893 0.023630 0.040372 0.068208 0.118468
2025-10-19 0.004686 0.008151 0.013916 0.024260 0.042500 0.073603 0.131243
2025-10-26 0.004329 0.007712 0.013478 0.024076 0.043241 0.076752 0.140483
2025-11-02 0.004033 0.007355 0.013149 0.024056 0.044268 0.080488 0.151142
2025-11-09 0.003706 0.006910 0.012624 0.023628 0.044502 0.082794 0.159323
2025-11-16 0.003514 0.006695 0.012493 0.023908 0.046064 0.087648 0.172754
2025-11-23 0.003279 0.006377 0.012144 0.023741 0.046747 0.090886 0.183303
2025-11-30 0.003155 0.006262 0.012165 0.024284 0.048852 0.097019 0.200158
2025-12-07 0.002883 0.005834 0.011547 0.023511 0.048260 0.097782 0.206091
2025-12-14 0.002690 0.005547 0.011182 0.023212 0.048598 0.100420 0.216141
2025-12-21 0.002471 0.005186 0.010642 0.022504 0.048021 0.101124 0.222102
2025-12-28 0.002430 0.005196 0.010854 0.023392 0.050894 0.109260 0.244978
2026-01-04 0.002358 0.005132 0.010908 0.023944 0.053082 0.116109 0.265597